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Russian Arms Exports

I dislike writing about arms exports because the people involved in this activity --- well, I dislike them. Creating financial models in the arms sector has paid many of my bills.


You can never really diverse arms exports from countries' more excellent grand strategies. And in this case, this is what the United States is doing.





Russian arms exports have fallen two levels not seen since the collapse of the Soviet Union, down nearly 70 percent since 2011 and with deliveries to just 12 countries. India and China developing their own arms industries, and Venezuela's economic downturn and lower oil prices caused this.




 Russia's arms exports have declined to levels not seen since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The decline began in 2019, well before the war in Ukraine, and was already down nearly 20% relative to 2011, the high-water mark for the Russian arms industry. The decline in arms sales points to further erosion of Russia's international influence and increasing dependence on oil and gas exports.

It also signifies Moscow's increasing reliance on and subordination to the interests of India and China. Russia's early-21st century arms boom was fuelled by scaled-up purchases from China, India, and Algeria and expansion into new markets in the former Soviet Union. Russian arms transfers to Syria spiked from 2010 to 2013 in the run-up to and first few years of the Syrian civil war as the U.S., E.U., and others imposed arms embargoes on Damascus.

The decline in Russian arms sales over the past decade has led to a loss of influence on global affairs. Currently, 91% of Russia's arms exports go to just four countries: India, China, Belarus, and Myanmar.

Dependence on exporting oil, natural gas, and other commodities has increased, reducing credibility as a trading partner. Western sanctions resulting from the war in Ukraine have also affected Russia's arms exports and created sourcing problems for critical components. While trade relations with countries like China and India have increased, Russia's arms exports have waned significantly. The decline in arms exports is a significant issue as countries use them to build coalitions and extend their interests.

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